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CA Arman Nahar
Equity Research Analyst @ Independent | Analytical Skills, Love to deep dive, Forever learner of Share market
AI Summary
Passionate equity researcher with a decade of experience. From CRISIL to Zee Business, I've honed my skills in fundamental analysis and market insights. I believe in the power of observation and a questioning mindset. Let's connect to explore the stories behind the numbers in finance.
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Common Sense
Questioning mindset
Observer
Valuation
Critical Thinking
Logical
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CA Arman Nahar's recent posts

CA Arman Nahar
Equity Research Analyst @ Independent | Analytical Skills, Love to deep dive, Forever learner of Share market
Just sharing some economic Facts: ………………………………. -Pakistan GDP: $370 billion or Rs: 31.6 lakh cr Reliance Industries + HDFC bank : Mcap currently around 33 lakh cr LIC investment value as on 30th Sep 2024: 54.2 lakh cr🫣 ……………………….. -Pakistan Forex Reserve: $16 bn or 1.36 lakh cr TCS annual Revenue: 2.6 lakh cr🫣 …………………………. -Pakistan Defence budget : 2.5 lakh cr HAL + BEL order book : 2.56 lakh cr🫣 ………………….. Pakistan Largest Market cap company’s market cap: $ 2.8 billion or Rs 24000cr Just saying above 24000cr macp we have 284 company’s🫣 …………….. What else can i say! Jai Hind!🫡❤️💪 #India

CA Arman Nahar
Equity Research Analyst @ Independent | Analytical Skills, Love to deep dive, Forever learner of Share market
Below points for any1 wanting to research any IPO! Some pointers Related to Ather Energy either all or many you may not have read or heard anywhere. 1)China dependency on lithium ion cells is all known but do you know suppliers give just 15-24 months warranty for cells and Industry wide Warranty and with extra pay warranty is given for 36-60 months -At almost significant % of sales of company was in FY23 to 9MFY25 i.e. 3.1 lakh units so actual real efficiency will only be known in FY26/FY27 -Having said about just 0.06% of complaints has battery issues in 9MFY25. 2)Company’s 46% of On Roll Employee and 11% of Off Roll employees are in R&D -Together of the Total employees 27% are in R&D while that for Ola was 13% around during the IPO 3) Holding of 2Wheller Poor households: 34% Aspirer household: 47% Middle class : 70% RICH : 75% Scooter as % of total 2W 2009 : 15% 2019 : 31.7% 2025 : 35.8% One big reason is also contribution of femal workforce FY18: 23.3% FY23: 37% FY24 : 41.7% 4)Lithium ion battery pack and cell prices -2018: 1/4th of 2013 -2024 : 1/2 of 2018 Just in 2024 prices were down by 20% and hence you saw Cost of Material consumed as % of Revenue Reduced for EV players and hence improved margins: For Ather 9MFY25 : 82.8% FY24 : 90% 5)Around 3.5% of margin improvement is because of higher inventory. 6)Borrowings -With Lease you are seeing 1285cr however 600cr within Short term borrowing is Compulsory Convertible Preference shares which will be part of equity 7)Bringing an IPO was also more so necessary because company’s Equity share capital left just 108cr and in FY23/FY24 raised around 2100cr which allowed company to keep burning cash and show Positive Equity share capital. Together we learn🙏 Note: Our only focus is to learn how to do research And not the decision or recommendation which require very intense research and perspective So always our view is JUST and JUST how we learn to do research. #Sharemarket #Equityresearch #CA #CFA #Students #Financialmodelling

CA Arman Nahar
Equity Research Analyst @ Independent | Analytical Skills, Love to deep dive, Forever learner of Share market
Jai Hind❤️❤️❤️💪 PAK press release: Diwaliye tho the hi, Diwali AAJ Bharat ne de di!! 🇮🇳!!!! Don’t ever dare again!!! Jai Hind💪❤️

CA Arman Nahar
Equity Research Analyst @ Independent | Analytical Skills, Love to deep dive, Forever learner of Share market
Want to learn Equity Research? -Ask yourself when was the last time you felt you are a fool? The frequency of times you feeling “You are a Fool” equal “ Pace you are learning”. -Reading Annual Reports/Investor Presentation/Earnings transcripts all helps But only when you start Questioning the Reason whatever being read or heard and try to link! So Silly yet most important question -When was the last time you felt you are a fool??? Someone beautiful said “Only when you know that you don’t know …Real knowing will know you”! Happy Knowing! Together we learn🙏 #Sharemarket #Students

CA Arman Nahar
Equity Research Analyst @ Independent | Analytical Skills, Love to deep dive, Forever learner of Share market
Lets just today dwell into one of the company which is a hypermarket chain. We will be starting with basics and as we go deeper things will get technical but as always will be easily understandable Let’s start Company’s Original founder sold the company and started new company which is also listed. Company’s revenue growth of last 4 years FY25 +20% FY24 +18% FY23 +36% FY23 was exceptional year and also lower base Just to give you a sense FY25 revenue is 1.9x of FY22 FY25 EBITDA is 1.85x of FY22 FY25 PAT is 3.1x of FY22 FY25 CFO is 2.1x of FY22 Note that last 6 years Combined Revenue: around 42000cr! EBITDA : around 6000cr PAT : around 1800cr FCF : around 4000cr FCF: Free Cash Flow! So FY22 numbers you can understand is also not small Growing at that pace also in FY25 says the moat company has created right? Stores Addition FY25 +12% FY24 +9% FY23 +10% What to be noted is Same Store Sales Growth FY25 12.3% FY24 13.6% FY23 25.2% FY22 11.9% Note here again company is not a small company and still SSSG growth is above 10% What’s even equally interesting is to note that % stores in Tier 2 cities and beyond FY25 72.4% FY24 69.4% FY23 68% FY22 66.7% And hence what’s fueling this growth at even these size is Tier 2 and beyond cities demand Well when you keep opening more and more stores in Tier 2 and beyond what will hapen to Average store size? Logically would reduce to match up the unit economics right? -Because Sale in Mumbai region will be much larger than Sale in any Tier 2/3 etc kind and if you keep Size same your breakeven for store will keep on increasing Right? So let’s just see if the company also thought that? Average Store Size (sq. ft) FY25 17475 FY24 18012 FY23 18269 FY22 18250 Well is the above strategy we talked about working or not Revenue per Average Store sq. ft. would give us very right indicator FY25 9384 +10.8% FY24 8473 +7.9% FY23 7850 What to be noted that mix between Apparel/FMCG/General Merchandise is more or less same in last 4 years Now with all these Revenue contribution from own brands FY25 73.2% FY24 71.8% FY23 70.5% FY22 70.2% It’s rising which just shows that every store company is adding will be margin accretive and shows the moat right? Just compile!! -Revenue growing at descent pace -SSSG growing 10%+ -Tier 2 and beyond share is store increasing -Store increase 9% or + in last 3 years -Average Store size reducing but Average Revenue per sq feet increasing -Revenue mix is almost stable over years -Own brand revenue share is rising. Well you could only say Above company has cracked the source code of regular growth with sustainable margins!!! Together we learn🙏🙏 Disclaimer: Our only intent is to learn together how to do equity research. Decision making need so so much more. #Sharemarket #Equityresearch #CA #CFA #Students #Financialmodelling

CA Arman Nahar
Equity Research Analyst @ Independent | Analytical Skills, Love to deep dive, Forever learner of Share market
As always i try to highlight in my post some insights which you would have not read anywhere So what will be Today? Fast Tag Collection and E-Way Bill First: Fast Tag Collection (From FY23 to FY25) -Every month In Value terms FY25>FY24>FY23 (Yellow in Pic) -Every month in Volume terms also FY25>FY24>FY23 (Green in Pic) -Except for Feb 2025 (Red in pic) per Transaction value for every month FY25>FY24>FY23 (Gray in Pic) Interesting isn’t it! Second: Now Coming too E-Way Bill (FY25 are Calaculated data so approx numbers not clearly available directly till now) -Volume has been rising since FY22 (Blue in Pic) -From FY23 to FY25 Volume growth outlasted Value growth and infact outperformance kept on rising why Because -Per Bill Value kept on Reducing in FY23/FY24/FY25 (Gold colour) FY22 was the year when Value rise was more than Volume rise and hence you will see many hardcore domestic focus logistic company’s margin highest in FY22! But one more catch is there -Organised players went aggressive in pricing to capture the market which was in hands on Unorganised players and now it’s mostly Organised players only in the market Interesting isn’t it!! Together we learn🙏 #Sharemarket #Equityresearch #CA #CFA #Students
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